Predictions
Every forecast, dated and linked to its memo. Graded when it resolves. Misses stay up.
The Record
| Made | Graded | Brier |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | – |
Brier score measures probability forecasts: 0 is perfect, and always saying 50% scores 0.25.
The Log
No forecasts logged yet. The first ones arrive with the first published memo.
Calibration
The chart appears once 10 probability forecasts have been graded. So far: 0.