How to Read This · Roster Memo

What this is

Roster Memo looks for value in rosters, depth charts and personnel: where clubs leave wins and money on the table. It has three parts: decision memos addressed to real clubs, a public log of dated forecasts that get graded, and tools for comparing rosters.

Where the numbers go quiet

Public stats do a fair job on established players and a poor one on players with little major league history. In our tests they barely rank those players at all. On the Depth Index, a ° marks those spots. They're where a roster decision depends on judgment, and where this site tries to say so instead of hiding behind a decimal.

The measures

Wins (WAR): Wins above a replacement-level player, the kind a club can find for about the league minimum. Zero is that freely available player, not a bad one.
Expected wins: What the whole roster should win in 2027, averaged over 10,000 simulated seasons with injuries. Higher is better.
80% range: Eight of every ten simulated seasons land here. It includes injuries, player performance and luck, so even a strong club's range is wide.
Healthy: The same roster with nobody hurt. It's a ceiling, not a forecast.
Lost to injury: Healthy minus expected wins: what injuries cost in an average season, after the depth chart absorbs them. Lower is better.
Depth value: Wins the backups add over a replacement-level fill when starters are hurt or resting.
Left on the table: Wins added if a bench player already on the roster took a job from a regular, counted only when the projected gap is at least one win. It weighs hitting only.
Surplus: What the club's projected wins would cost on the open market, minus what it pays above the league minimum. Compare clubs with each other: nearly every club is positive because young players are cheap. It's a rough figure.
Value priced: The share of a club's projected value we could price. Unpriced players are treated as paid about market value, so a low share means the surplus deserves less trust.
Luxury-tax value: How contracts are costed here: guaranteed money, bonuses included, spread over the guaranteed years, with deferred money discounted. A deal paying $2 million a year in cash can still count for $46 million.

Reading the depth chart

Each job goes first to whoever played there most over the last two seasons, with 2026 counting double, then down the club's published chart, then to replacement level. Share is how much of the job a player is expected to hold after injuries and rest.Cost takes one of a few forms: a linked figure is a contract from public reporting, "est." is our rough estimate of an arbitration salary, "about minimum" is a player early in his career, and "in review" or "not entered" means we don't have a number we trust.

How far to trust it

These are projections from public data, and clubs have better information than we do.
The rosters are a snapshot and change with every transaction. Each page shows its date.
Our test results and known flaws are on the Model page.
Forecasts are graded in public on the Predictions page, and misses stay up.