Finding value in every roster spot.

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National League West

San Diego Padres

91-71 in 2026, 2nd, wild card, +41 run differential. Home: Petco Park.

The roster as it stands on 2026-11-05, projected for 2027. Preliminary: free agents are off rosters and offseason moves are still to come.

What Stands Out

Data Desk →
Expected wins
78.9
80% range
69–89
Rank
19 of 30
Lost to injury
2.7
Depth value
2.6
Left on table
0.0
Surplus
$176M
Value priced
92%
Committed to 2027
$154.9M
IL days, 2026
1,630 (18th-most)
IL placements, 2026
31
Players used, 2026
46 (24th-most)
Options, 2026
32
Waiver claims, 2026
0

Where the numbers go quiet: Bullpen. The regulars here have too little MLB history for public stats to say much.

The Long View

Wins by season

The line is this club; the shaded band runs from baseball's fewest wins to its most. 2020 was a 60-game season.

02550751001252000200520102015202020262000: 76 (clubs ranged 65 to 97)2001: 79 (clubs ranged 62 to 116)2002: 66 (clubs ranged 55 to 103)2003: 64 (clubs ranged 43 to 101)2004: 87 (clubs ranged 51 to 105)2005: 82 (clubs ranged 56 to 100)2006: 88 (clubs ranged 61 to 97)2007: 89 (clubs ranged 66 to 96)2008: 63 (clubs ranged 59 to 100)2009: 75 (clubs ranged 59 to 103)2010: 90 (clubs ranged 57 to 97)2011: 71 (clubs ranged 56 to 102)2012: 76 (clubs ranged 55 to 98)2013: 76 (clubs ranged 51 to 97)2014: 77 (clubs ranged 64 to 98)2015: 74 (clubs ranged 63 to 100)2016: 68 (clubs ranged 59 to 103)2017: 71 (clubs ranged 64 to 104)2018: 66 (clubs ranged 47 to 108)2019: 70 (clubs ranged 47 to 107)2020: 37 (clubs ranged 19 to 43)2021: 79 (clubs ranged 52 to 107)2022: 89 (clubs ranged 55 to 111)2023: 82 (clubs ranged 50 to 104)2024: 93 (clubs ranged 41 to 98)2025: 90 (clubs ranged 43 to 97)2026: 91 (clubs ranged 58 to 103)
Source: Roster Memo count of Retrosheet data and MLB standings

Players used by season

Players who appeared for the club; the band is the league's range.

3040506070802000200520102015202020252000: 56 (clubs ranged 36 to 56)2001: 48 (clubs ranged 35 to 53)2002: 59 (clubs ranged 35 to 59)2003: 51 (clubs ranged 34 to 57)2004: 47 (clubs ranged 36 to 58)2005: 46 (clubs ranged 36 to 55)2006: 46 (clubs ranged 37 to 57)2007: 49 (clubs ranged 40 to 54)2008: 59 (clubs ranged 39 to 59)2009: 56 (clubs ranged 41 to 56)2010: 40 (clubs ranged 37 to 57)2011: 48 (clubs ranged 42 to 55)2012: 53 (clubs ranged 38 to 56)2013: 47 (clubs ranged 39 to 56)2014: 51 (clubs ranged 39 to 64)2015: 46 (clubs ranged 40 to 60)2016: 58 (clubs ranged 41 to 60)2017: 52 (clubs ranged 41 to 61)2018: 49 (clubs ranged 41 to 63)2019: 54 (clubs ranged 43 to 67)2020: 47 (clubs ranged 38 to 61)2021: 54 (clubs ranged 45 to 69)2022: 55 (clubs ranged 43 to 68)2023: 56 (clubs ranged 41 to 66)2024: 49 (clubs ranged 44 to 70)2025: 52 (clubs ranged 44 to 71)
Source: Roster Memo count of Retrosheet data

Player-days on the injured list

Counted from transactions; the band is the league's range. The 10-day list began in 2017.

01,0002,0003,0004,0002015202020262015: 1,081 (clubs ranged 483 to 2,123)2016: 1,573 (clubs ranged 437 to 2,606)2017: 1,940 (clubs ranged 367 to 2,386)2018: 1,802 (clubs ranged 826 to 2,304)2019: 2,191 (clubs ranged 684 to 2,533)2020: 670 (clubs ranged 124 to 1,270)2021: 2,280 (clubs ranged 837 to 3,155)2022: 1,636 (clubs ranged 926 to 3,560)2023: 1,827 (clubs ranged 684 to 2,409)2024: 987 (clubs ranged 697 to 2,076)2025: 1,255 (clubs ranged 412 to 2,625)2026: 1,630 (clubs ranged 360 to 2,374)
Source: Roster Memo count of MLB transactions

Next Up

PlayerAgeLevelRoleProj. wins
Nick Solak32AAAHitter1.3
Jake Cunningham25AAHitter1.2
Francis Peña26AAPitcher1.2
Jamie Hitt25AAPitcher1.2
Hans Crouse29AAAPitcher1.1
Josh Mallitz26AAPitcher1.1
Evan Fitterer27AAAPitcher1.1
Johan Moreno24AAPitcher1.0

Best-projected Triple-A and Double-A players in the organization who aren't on the 40-man, in wins per 600 PA or 150 IP. Thin samples are regressed hard.

Where the Money Goes

2027 cost tierPlayersCommitted
Contracts5$113.0M
Arbitration (est.)11$33.3M
Near the minimum11$8.6M
Not yet priced5–

Luxury-tax values where we have a sourced contract; arbitration figures are our estimates.

Biggest Weak Spots

Upgrade Board →
Spotvs. leagueFree agent optionWins gainedMarket est.
Rotation-4.5Tarik Skubal+3.5$46.6M
Trevor Rogers+2.0$27.9M
Sonny Gray+2.0$28.6M
First base-1.6Jake Bauers+1.9$18.8M
Ty France+1.2$11.0M
Josh Bell+1.1$9.0M
Catcher-0.8Ryan Jeffers+2.2$41.5M
Gary Sánchez+1.9$37.6M
Carson Kelly+1.8$36.2M

Options are inferred from recent transactions, so some may have signed elsewhere. Wins gained are cut to 90%, a factor tested on bench players and assumed here. Market estimates price projected wins at $10.8M each, not what a player would actually sign for.

The Depth Chart

Catcher2.1 wins, -0.8 vs. league

PlayerAgeShareWinsCost
Luis Campusano2931%1.1not entered
Freddy Fermin3268%1.0~$4.2M est.

First base-0.3 wins, -1.6 vs. league

PlayerAgeShareWinsCost
Gavin Sheets315%0.0~$5.3M est.
Jake Cronenworth333%0.0$11.4M
Will Wagner2984%-0.3about minimum

Second base2.3 wins, +0.5 vs. league

PlayerAgeShareWinsCost
Jake Cronenworth3384%1.4$11.4M
Fernando Tatis Jr.2816%0.8$24.3M

Third base2.6 wins, +0.5 vs. league

PlayerAgeShareWinsCost
Manny Machado3582%2.5$31.8M
Sung-Mun Song °3116%0.1not entered
Gage Workman282%0.0about minimum

Shortstop2.6 wins, -0.3 vs. league

PlayerAgeShareWinsCost
Xander Bogaerts3582%2.4$25.4M
Sung-Mun Song °3117%0.2not entered

Left field0.8 wins, -0.4 vs. league

PlayerAgeShareWinsCost
Gavin Sheets3184%0.8~$5.3M est.
Jase Bowen2715%0.0about minimum
Samad Taylor291%0.0~$780K est.

Center field4.2 wins, +1.8 vs. league

PlayerAgeShareWinsCost
Jackson Merrill2486%4.0about minimum
Jase Bowen2714%0.2about minimum

Right field3.1 wins, +1.7 vs. league

PlayerAgeShareWinsCost
Fernando Tatis Jr.2873%3.0$24.3M
Dustin Harris285%0.0about minimum
Jase Bowen2721%0.0about minimum

Designated hitter-0.0 wins, -0.5 vs. league

PlayerAgeShareWinsCost
Luis Campusano2959%0.2not entered
Manny Machado355%0.0$31.8M
Will Wagner296%-0.1about minimum
Ethan Salas °2130%-0.2about minimum

Rotation3.0 wins, -4.5 vs. league

PlayerAgeShareWinsCost
Joe Musgrove °3581%1.2$20.0M
Jhony Brito °2981%1.0~$2.3M est.
Randy Vásquez2981%0.5~$1.1M est.
JP Sears3178%0.3~$1.3M est.

Bullpen10.9 wins, +2.5 vs. league °

PlayerAgeShareWinsCost
Mason Miller2988%3.6~$7.7M est.
Bradgley Rodriguez2491%2.3about minimum
Jeremiah Estrada2987%1.6~$7.2M est.
David Morgan2888%0.9about minimum
Luis Gutierrez °2491%0.7about minimum
Wandy Peralta3686%0.5in review
Hunter Stratton °3184%0.5~$1.0M est.
Bryan Hoeing °3185%0.4~$1.8M est.
Kyle Hart3562%0.3not entered
Yuki Matsui3227%0.1not entered
Garrett Hawkins °277%0.0about minimum

Share is of the job at that spot; a rotation or bullpen lists several jobs, so shares can add to more than 100%. A linked cost is a luxury-tax value from public reporting. How to read this.

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at "www.retrosheet.org". Player ID links come from the Chadwick Baseball Bureau register (Open Data Commons Attribution License). Rosters, transactions, minor league and 2026 statistics, and defensive measures come from MLB sources. We publish only our own derived results. Methods are on the Model page.